Why extended social distancing matters

As my first post pointed out this is a matter of numbers. One of those is number of contacts. This is the more important number, but the number of days or weeks or months matters too. The chain reaction of contacts needs to die out before it’s safe. This will ramp up rapidly if we lose focus. Almost isn’t anywhere near good enough in this case.

There is pain, mentally and yes, financially. It makes sense to endure a little more of the financial pain now than to prolong this. When this ends, and it will, demand will resume and the economy will rebound. But if we let the virus run rampant with foolish policies that encourage people to mingle, the rebound will be slower and lower. The more people who die, the more who become seriously ill, the greater the drain on the resources we will need to recover.

This can seem hard. People by nature interact. We like the habits we’ve developed. And there isn’t a visible tangible threat. The world isn’t devastated, at least not yet. But if a significant number of people die or become disabled some slow moving devastation will occur. Things will look different and fixing things will take longer. Some things, some institutions, will slowly decay because the human resources needed to maintain them aren’t available.

We can get through this, but we really need to prioritize societal well being over financial. History tells us over and over that societal collapse lasts far longer than financial. We need to think about what will really need to protect for future generations.

Ten Isn't Magic

One point that I think is important make. There’s nothing magic about ten when it comes to Covid-19. The point of the limit gatherings to ten or fewer was to reduce transmission, not stop it. To stop the spread the safe number is one.

As I intimated in my previous post, this is a numbers game. The more human to human contacts that occur the greater the transmission. It bugs me that officials don’t make this clear. Is ten better than eleven? Well, yes, but five is better still. Why didn’t they pick that number? And yes, ten was picked, basically out of thin air.

Total human to human contact is the only number that matters. We know we can’t keep it to zero, but we have to keep it low. Really low. This is a perfect example of how exponents work in real life.

The virus doesn’t care about our numbers. It will behave as we allow it. The only effective tool we have is isolation. If we practice self isolation the government won’t have to be as heavy handed. And we don’t want to give them the practice.

But the risk is low…

I’ve been doing some thinking about the social distancing thing. Like many my first reaction was that we in New Hampshire are currently in a low risk situation. It would be very inconvenient for me to practice self isolation, for some it would actually be costly. Yet, once I applied some basic knowledge and logic and overruled my emotional reaction I realized that it’s imperative that as many people as possible stay out of public circulation.

Let me take a step back. A couple of years ago my lower back took a trip south and I had some severely pinched nerves and could barely walk. That was an immediate threat to my well being, and I took it as such. One of the things I was afraid of was slipping into depression. Recognizing that I made a conscious decision to act to avert that. In this case I decided to spend time studying to improve my science and math literacy. As it happens that has become very useful in this situation.

I was very fortunate with my back. Surgery relieved the pain, PT and exercise got me mobile again. And I think in some part my recovery was aided by a conscious choice to avoid depression.

The Corona virus presents a different challenge. There’s no immediate pain and most of us don’t even know anyone who has been directly impacted by the disease. I don’t FEEL threatened. But my intellect and science and mathematics tells me the threat is very, very real.

There are any number of sources that give simulations of why isolation is important. This one from The Washington Post is good, if you take the time to follow it through and absorb the information. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/

So based on my inclination to trust science and math, I will be doing all I can to stay isolated as much as possible. I don’t think I will be able to completely avoid contact, but since every instance of contact creates an exponential spread point potential I am planning on maximum self isolation. The individual act may seem insignificant, but reducing the total number of contacts does reduce the odds of the spread of this disease.

I know that this will be impossible for everyone. Some people simply must go out to work because they are in critical positions. My act will help protect them. The numbers are clear, if not intuitive. But if you can, make the conscious choice to make a single, small reduction in the overall risk.

My personal level of fear is low. I’m in a risk group by age, but I’m healthy. But even if I only provide a vector to someone else, that is a horrible thing to be responsible for. So I’ll be hanging at home and walking in the local park and woods, keeping a few feet away from others out of courtesy. I hope that enough people do this that people will be talking about how we over reacted in a few months. But, to me, that will be proof that I was right.

I hope to see you, from a distance, as I walk locally. Say hi, but speak up. My hearing isn’t that good over a couple of yards.