But the risk is low…

I’ve been doing some thinking about the social distancing thing. Like many my first reaction was that we in New Hampshire are currently in a low risk situation. It would be very inconvenient for me to practice self isolation, for some it would actually be costly. Yet, once I applied some basic knowledge and logic and overruled my emotional reaction I realized that it’s imperative that as many people as possible stay out of public circulation.

Let me take a step back. A couple of years ago my lower back took a trip south and I had some severely pinched nerves and could barely walk. That was an immediate threat to my well being, and I took it as such. One of the things I was afraid of was slipping into depression. Recognizing that I made a conscious decision to act to avert that. In this case I decided to spend time studying to improve my science and math literacy. As it happens that has become very useful in this situation.

I was very fortunate with my back. Surgery relieved the pain, PT and exercise got me mobile again. And I think in some part my recovery was aided by a conscious choice to avoid depression.

The Corona virus presents a different challenge. There’s no immediate pain and most of us don’t even know anyone who has been directly impacted by the disease. I don’t FEEL threatened. But my intellect and science and mathematics tells me the threat is very, very real.

There are any number of sources that give simulations of why isolation is important. This one from The Washington Post is good, if you take the time to follow it through and absorb the information. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/coronavirus-how-epidemics-spread-and-end/

So based on my inclination to trust science and math, I will be doing all I can to stay isolated as much as possible. I don’t think I will be able to completely avoid contact, but since every instance of contact creates an exponential spread point potential I am planning on maximum self isolation. The individual act may seem insignificant, but reducing the total number of contacts does reduce the odds of the spread of this disease.

I know that this will be impossible for everyone. Some people simply must go out to work because they are in critical positions. My act will help protect them. The numbers are clear, if not intuitive. But if you can, make the conscious choice to make a single, small reduction in the overall risk.

My personal level of fear is low. I’m in a risk group by age, but I’m healthy. But even if I only provide a vector to someone else, that is a horrible thing to be responsible for. So I’ll be hanging at home and walking in the local park and woods, keeping a few feet away from others out of courtesy. I hope that enough people do this that people will be talking about how we over reacted in a few months. But, to me, that will be proof that I was right.

I hope to see you, from a distance, as I walk locally. Say hi, but speak up. My hearing isn’t that good over a couple of yards.